For quite some time now, analysts the world over have been completely befuddled by Pakistan. What exactly was going on there? On one hand you have all evidence to show the Pakistani State's sponsorship, training and support to jehadi terrorist groups of all shades sunni. Top leaders of the Afghan Taliban and even Al Qaeda have been in safe houses in large Pakistani cities - Peshawar, then Quetta and recently, Karachi. On the other hand, some of these very terrorists attacked the Pakistani State and Army with animal ferocity - suicide attacks on training academies, lone convoys, serving officers, even the Army headquarters itself. The brutality of these attacks removed any doubt if these were just stage-managed, especially gruesome was the attack on worshippers mosque frequented by serving and retired Army officers. This led currency to the shaky idea that Pakistan itself is a victim of terrorism as asserted by the foreign minister, in response to Indian calls to prosecute LeT leaders behind the 26/11 attacks. What exactly was the true picture?
Now with the Pakistani delegation in the US for their new 'strategic dialogue', things are a bit clearer. Basically there seem to be two powerful jehadi strands in Pakistan - one that is at least ostensibly in control of the Pakistani military-intelligence, which kowtows to the interest of the Pakistani nationalist elite. The LeT, which carefully avoids attacks within Pakistan, is of this type. Though they too share the overall jehadi vision, they are ready to wait it out and achieve it step-by-step, under the master guidance and choreography provided by the Pakistani Army.
There is another more virulent, transnational and more openly pan-Islamic jehadi strain, basically al-Qaeda redux, which does not care for the blinkered approach of the Pakistani state - so this jehadi network does not care about Pakistani state's placation of US and Chinese interests: they want total jehad and all-at-once, whether against US or China (Turkestan) or India. They wouldn't think twice about even attacking a sports team if they deem that sport un-Islamic or just show what they are capable of. So obviously, this network had no hesitation in attacking the Pakistani Army with utmost brutality, as they perceived it to be doing more harm than good by cooperating with the US. They didn't buy the Army rhetoric that this was all short-term*. They were fueled by the rage in the aftermath of the attack on the Red Mosque. Their strength was increasing ominously when a new Taliban was formed from Pashtun elements in Pakistan and even some Punjabi jehadi groups and most probably, even some elements of the Army and intelligence joined them.
However, the Army seems to have stemmed the tide by skilfully using some Punjabi jehadi groups loyal to its distorted vision to beat back the other Al-Qaeda-inspired elements. The LeT, Ilyas Kashmiri and thus 26/11 were important aspects of this plan. the Pakistani Army allowed LeT to execute 26/11 so that they could gain prestige and thus cut into the sponsorship of pan-Islamic groups. It also allowed them to woo back Kashmiri and his 313 Brigade, which were showing signs of alienation from the Pakistani army, and moving to embrace the Qaeda version - which would have been dangerous to the army. 26/11 was sort of like a crooked jehadi enticement. There were extra goodies like stalling action on their western border complaining of Indian provocation on the eastern. Meanwhile, they got the US to drone-out the Pakistani Taliban and did some cleaning themselves by their offensiveness in Swat and Waziristan more recently. They anyway always had the Afghan Taliban firmly in their bear hug, never tolerating any deviation from the script they write for them.
India remained clueless while all this jehadi manoeuvring was going on. And result is that, the Army has rode back firmly in charge of Pakistan - the deal is that they will reign in the pan-Islamic transnational jehadis, the 'bad Taliban', while being allowed to retain their attack dogs, the vicious anti-India terror groups and the 'good Taliban'. America has bought this argument - after all, they need to cut loose and run as soon as possible before 2012 and that too, with a declaration of victory. The war-weary US and NATO generals would rather leave with an orchestrated victory than fight a never-ending war - especially when their hands have been tied silly into not attacking the terror sanctuaries and supply-chain in Pakistan.
So that is the planned end to the greatest hoax in modern history, the phony 'war on terror'. 9 years after invading Afghanistan on the pretext of defeating the Taliban, a clueless coalition will depart on the incredible premise that they have at least defeated the 'bad Taliban'. Afghanistan will be left to be ruled by a ragtag bunch of mujahedin, warlords and the 'good Taliban'. the Pakistani Army, which will facilitate all this, most likely by handing over the top leadership of Al-Qaeda to the US, will be entitled, as a reward, to both 'strategic depth' provided by their 'good Taliban' proxies and terrorist groups like LeT and HuJI, which 'are anyway just India-centric'. the Taliban who became 'bad' by associating with al-Qaeda and other pan-Islamic groups, will be declared 'good' after 9 years of hopelessly fighting them just because they will ostensibly sever ties with the transnational jehadi networks. Any Taliban who resist will end up in Guantanamo, anyway; or end up dead in drone attacks.
so this is the tightrope that Kayani hopes to walk and this is what he is out to sell in the US. This is what the 'strategic dialogue' is all about. The only spoiler is that, the transnational jehadi networks and their sympathisers in the Army and ISI may not take all this lying down and may fight back, plunging Pakistan into a civil war. Besides, their own carefully trained attack dogs may turn rogue. But with persistent support from US, NATO nations and China, this choreographed vision may come true - a newly Talibanized Afghanistan, an emboldened Army firmly in control in Pakistan. India must prepare for this eventuality by re-initiating dialogue with Iran and Russia on one hand, and the Northern alliance and secular and progressive Pashtun leaders on the other.
*I mean, who would buy it any way other than the completely stupid groups or those that are biding their time, given that the generals were making a killing out of their yankee appeasement! Billions of dollars have been poured into the pockets of these generals.
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