So...they have finally announced their latest franchise in India. I have a certain cause for concern on this announcement for reasons that analysts have not noted so far.
Firstly, al-Qaeda in the Af-Pak region is tightly controlled by the Pakistani Army - it was not for nothing that Osama bin Laden was found to be living for many years near an Army Outpost in Abbotabad. Even today, according to various credible intelligence reports, Mullah Omar and most probably Aeman al Zawahiri are being closely guarded by elements of the ISI. So every move they make, has indirect blessings of the Pakistani Army and ISI.
For many years the Pakistani Army did not allow al-Qaeda to operate in Kashmir or other parts of India - this was so that the so-called 'separatist movement' would not be weakened by 'terrorist' labels internationally and hence draw opprobrium, thus indirectly benefiting India's campaign there.
Somewhere things seem to be changing - either the Pakistani Army is rethinking it's strategy in view of a strongly nationalist BJP Government in India, or worse, they are losing control of the jihadi networks. It could well be a combination of both. With a weak US administration unwilling or unable to take on global jihadi terrorists such as ISIS (which now threatens to enter into Af-Pak), the Pakistani Army figures, it can do with a little more free-play to the ol-qaeda pals. The Qaeda pals may themselves be seeking to be free of the tight bear-hug of the Pakistani shadow-state, as otherwise they risk becoming irrelevant in the increasingly belligerent jihadi bazaar.
This certainly is not good news for India - because in either scenario, it looks like the Pakistani state is imploding and salafi jihadists are set to take over soon if not imminently. India should start raising a huge army of irregulars, if nothing, to counter this dangerous situation.
